Monday, December 8, 2025
Futures: LME copper opened at $11,609/mt last Friday night, maintaining a "W" pattern in early trading. After touching a low of $11,556.5/mt, its price center rose, reaching a high of $11,701.5/mt, and finally closed at $11,665/mt, up 2.02%. Trading volume reached 31,000 lots, and open interest reached 342,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2601 contract opened at 92,520 yuan/mt. After opening, its price center moved down, touching a low of 91,720 yuan/mt, then rose all the way to a high of 92,860 yuan/mt, finally closing at 92,380 yuan/mt, up 0.9%. Trading volume reached 104,000 lots, and open interest reached 228,000 lots.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) On December 6, the DRC's state mining company Gecamines and Swiss commodities group Mercuria announced a cooperation to jointly market copper, cobalt, and other critical minerals. The DRC is a major copper supplier and is implementing a series of reforms aimed at strengthening control over its mineral extraction and enhancing its global influence. According to the statement, based on a memorandum of understanding signed earlier this year, this new cooperation will enable Gecamines to directly control the sales of production from its joint ventures and participate in market bidding.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On December 5, SMM's #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2512 contract were quoted at a premium of 60-280 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 170 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM #1 copper cathode price ranged from 91,060 to 92,110 yuan/mt. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2512 contract briefly touched a low of 90,610 yuan/mt before rising sharply, reaching a high of 91,920 yuan/mt during the session. The inter-month price spread was C100-C40 yuan/mt, and the import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract narrowed to around 1,400 yuan/mt. Looking ahead this week, continuously rising copper prices affected downstream procurement pace. Although spot supply in Shanghai was tight, warehouse withdrawals were expected to weaken, slowing the inventory decline. Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to persist but with limited increases.
(2) Guangdong: On December 5, Guangdong's #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were quoted at a premium of 40-130 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 85 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 50-10 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 30 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price for Guangdong's #1 copper cathode was 91,155 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous day, and the average price for SX-EW copper was 91,040 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous day. Overall, with inventory rising for two consecutive days, downstream buyers were reluctant to purchase, but suppliers were also unwilling to lower prices, leading to significant differences between buyers and sellers and poor transactions.
(3) Imported copper: On December 5, warrant prices were $30 to $46/mt, QP December, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $40 to $52/mt, QP December, with the average price down $2/mt from the previous trading day. EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $0/mt to $14/mt, QP December, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. Quotations refer to cargoes arriving in the first half of December.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on December 5, the futures closing price was 91,830 yuan/mt, up 580 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was 170 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials rose 200 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 81,200-81,400 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 5,511 yuan/mt, up 369 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 2,490 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, secondary copper rod traders indicated that following the rapid price increase at the end of the week, they could appropriately lower prices for previously stockpiled secondary copper rod to achieve quick transactions. Consequently, finished product inventories at secondary copper rod enterprises saw a pullback MoM.
(5) Inventory: On December 4, LME copper cathode inventories decreased by 275 mt to 162,550 mt; on December 5, SHFE warrant inventories decreased by 1,203 mt to 30,936 mt.
Price: On the macro front, the US released the September core PCE price index annual rate at 2.8%, below expectations and hitting a three-month low, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and supporting copper prices. Additionally, Fed Chairman candidate Hassett conveyed hawkish expectations, and the market generally adopted a wait-and-see approach ahead of this week's US Fed interest rate decision. On the fundamentals, supply side, arrivals of imported and domestic cargoes were tight; demand side, the sharp rise in copper prices significantly dampened downstream purchasing sentiment. Overall, copper prices are expected to continue hovering at highs today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
